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After a turbulent 2025 marked by trade tensions, political shifts, and economic uncertainty, the Canadian housing market is entering 2026 in what industry experts are calling a "reset year." Here's what buyers and sellers across the country need to know.
The Big Picture
The national housing market is expected to post modest gains in 2026. According to Royal LePage's Market Survey Forecast, the aggregate price of a home in Canada is set to increase just 1% year-over-year to approximately $823,016 by Q4 2026. Meanwhile, CREA forecasts national home sales will rebound by 7.7% to 509,479 transactions—the highest level since 2021.
The story of 2026 is one of stabilization rather than dramatic swings. Solid market fundamentals, including lower interest rates, increased supply, and reduced competition, have created a more favourable environment for consumers.
The Tariff Factor
The elephant in the room remains the Canada-U.S. trade war. Trade uncertainty emerged as the single biggest factor holding back housing activity in 2025, even as other traditional barriers eased. Royal LePage CEO Phil Soper estimates the drag from trade concerns likely impacted home prices between two and four percent.
The good news? Canadians appear to be adjusting to the new reality. Many have accepted that economic volatility will likely stick around, and buyers are gradually returning to the market.
A Tale of Two Markets
Perhaps the most important trend heading into 2026 is the growing divide between different regions.
Markets Under Pressure
Toronto and Vancouver continue to face headwinds. Royal LePage forecasts aggregate home prices in the greater regions of Toronto and Vancouver will decrease 4.5% and 3.5% year-over-year respectively. The condo segment is particularly soft, with the median price of condominiums anticipated to decrease 2.5% nationally.
Markets Showing Strength
It's a different story in Quebec, the Prairies, and Atlantic Canada. Saskatchewan has posted benchmark price growth exceeding 7%, while Nova Scotia continues to see gains around 6% year-over-year. Quebec City is expected to be a standout performer, with forecast price increases of 12% year-over-year.
What This Means for Nova Scotia
Our province remains one of the tighter markets in the country. With a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 81%, market conditions remain firmly tilted toward sellers.
RE/MAX forecasts Halifax will see average residential sale prices increase by 3% going into 2026, with sales anticipated to rise by 2%. The most desirable neighbourhoods heading into the new year? Dartmouth, Sackville, and Bedford West are expected to lead the way, with single-detached homes seeing the strongest demand.
For buyers in Nova Scotia, first-time homebuyers are finding opportunities in semi-detached and condominium inventory in the $500,000 range, while move-up buyers are targeting the $750,000 range.
Key Factors to Watch
Interest Rates: The Bank of Canada is expected to hold rates relatively steady through 2026, which means no dramatic boost to affordability—but also no nasty surprises for buyers who've already locked in.
Mortgage Renewals: A large portion of Canadian mortgages are expected to renew in 2026, many at higher rates than their initial contracts. This could encourage some homeowners to sell.
Immigration: Reduced immigration levels are impacting urban condo markets most directly, particularly in Toronto and Vancouver where international students and temporary workers had been driving rental demand.
New Construction: Canada is undergoing an unprecedented rental construction boom, with nearly 180,000 purpose-built rental units currently under construction nationwide. This new supply will be most pronounced in B.C., Alberta, and Atlantic Canada.
The Bottom Line
2026 is shaping up to be a year of opportunity for prepared buyers and realistic sellers. The frenzy is over, and we're returning to something closer to normal market conditions—something we haven't seen in nearly a decade.
For buyers, this means more choice, more negotiating power, and time to make informed decisions. For sellers, it means pricing realistically and presenting properties well from day one.
Whether you're looking to buy your first home, move up, or downsize, understanding these trends in the context of your local market is essential.
Curious how these national trends translate to your neighbourhood in Nova Scotia? Let's connect and talk about what 2026 could mean for your real estate goals.